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The growing rift between the United States and China has chilling similarities to America's old rivalry with the Soviet Union, says Daniel W. Drezner

When Barack Obama burst into the room to disrupt China's meeting with its fellow climate change sceptics at the Copenhagen summit, it was clear that something was not right in the relationship between the two countries. The American resident had made his way past reporters, with a face like thunder, and shouted at his Chinese counterpart, 'Mr pandora style beads Premier, are you ready for me?' Wen Jiabao was not; and according to numerous press reports, Mr Obama was berated by a mid-ranking Chinese official for his rudeness. It was obvious to all present that the relative amicability that had defined Sino-American relations for most of last year was over.

Just a few months earlier, they seemed to be getting along famously. Hillary Clinton had been sent to China to thank them for buying so much American debt and to ask them to buy some more. White House staff were working well with their Beijing counterparts, and even military-to-military contacts had been rekindled. Pundits in Washington began to debate the prospect of a new 'G-2' alliance with Beijing to solve matters of global import. Sino-American relations seemed to be on the mend.

It didn't last long. The relationship has worsened - and with ominous implications. For example, after Google announced its intention to withdraw from China after cyber-attacks on its Gmail service, Mrs Clinton gave a speech on internet freedom and alluded to China's efforts to censor the web. China reacted vehemently, accusing the US of seeking to perpetuate its 'information hegemony'. When Washington sought an additional round of United Nations Security Council sanctions against Iran's nuclear programme, China acted as the brake.

A fortnight ago, the Obama administration announced a $6.4 billion arms sale to China's diplomatic nemesis, Taiwan. China responded by threatening to impose sanctions on US firms such as Boeing. Their reaction was no less strong when American officials announced that Obama would meet the Dalai Lama, another of Beijing's enemies. To these diplomatic set-tos, one can add tariff disputes catalog printing over tyres, chicken, steel and other products.

The Obama administration initially toned down its rhetoric about Chinese currency manipulation - but it has changed course in recent weeks. Returning economic fire, People's Liberation Army officials suggested using China's vast dollar holdings as a foreign-policy lever. Major General Luo Yuan told a Chinese magazine, 'We could sanction them using economic means, such as dumping some US government bonds.'

This is a financial version of the nuclear button. In response to the Taiwan arms sale, the state-controlled People's Daily newspaper accused the US of having a 'Cold War mentality'. Soberingly, a recent poll claimed that 55 per cent of Chinese agreed that 'a cold war will break out between the US and China'.

An alarming prediction - but how accurate is it? Is the new Sino-American frostiness really a reboot of the Cold War? There are, alas, striking similarities. During the Cold War, for instance, America persistently exaggerated the military, economic and ideological strength of the Soviet Union. With an astronomically high investment rate, the Soviets achieved impressive but misleading economic growth. In the mid-1970s, the infamous 'Team B' exercise by the CIA produced a vastly exaggerated analysis of Russia's military power. From Kennedy's 'missile gap' to Reagan's 'window of vulnerability', American leaders overestimate
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